Market perspectives
Vanguard Perspective
|December 6, 2024
Market perspectives
- According to the Vanguard Capital Markets Model, U.S. stocks may return between 2.8% and 4.8% over the next 10 years, while global stocks outside the U.S. may return between 6.9% and 8.9%.
- The U.S. economy is expected to grow above 2% in 2025, driven by labor force and productivity gains, but may slow down if interest rates rise too quickly.
- In contrast, the euro area economy may grow below trend in 2025 due to a manufacturing downturn and restrictive monetary and fiscal policies, while the U.K. economy may experience growth above trend, driven by fiscal stimulus.
- China's economic outlook for 2025 will likely hinge on the degree of policy support and potential U.S. tariff increases, which could impact your emerging markets exposure.
- Emerging markets may see continued easing of monetary policy in 2025.
- The Federal Reserve may cut rates further in 2025, which could impact your investments, so you should consider working with a financial advisor to navigate these changes and create a personalized investment strategy.
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The views below are those of the global economics and markets team of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group as of as of December 4, 2024.
We attribute the U.S. economy’s strong GDP growth, low unemployment, and cooling inflation to recent labor and productivity gains.
We anticipate the Fed will reduce its rate target further in 2025 to a range of 3.75%–4.00%.
While China’s economy has regained some ground, we expect their 2025 outlook will hinge on policy support and potential U.S. tariff hikes.
Projected returns
Vanguard’s outlook for financial markets
Our 10-year annualized nominal return and volatility forecasts are shown below. They are based on the November 8, 2024, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM). Equity returns reflect a 2-point range around the 50th percentile of the distribution of probable outcomes. Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.
| Equities |
Return projection | Median volatility |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. equities: | 2.8%–4.8% | (16.9%) |
| Global equities ex-U.S. (unhedged): | 6.9%–8.9% | (18.5%) |
| Global ex-U.S. developed markets equities (unhedged): | 7.3%–9.3% | (16.8%) |
| Emerging markets equities (unhedged): | 5.2%–7.2% | (26.1%) |
| U.S. value: | 4.2%–6.2% | (19.2%) |
| U.S. growth: | 0.4%–1.6% | (17.8%) |
| U.S. large-cap: | 2.5%–4.5% | (16.5%) |
| U.S. small-cap: | 4.2%–6.2% | (22.4%) |
| U.S. REITs: | 3.8%–5.8% | (20.1%) |
| Fixed income | Return projection | Median volatility |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. aggregate bonds: | 4.3%–5.3% | (5.7%) |
| Global bonds ex-U.S. (hedged): | 4.3%–5.3% | (4.5%) |
| U.S. Treasury bonds: | 4.1%–5.1% | (6.0%) |
| U.S. intermediate credit: | 4.6%–5.6% | (5.2%) |
| U.S. high-yield corporate: | 5.3%–6.3% | (10.1%) |
| Emerging markets sovereign: | 5.0%–6.0% | (9.8%) |
| U.S. TIPS: | 3.4%–4.4% | (5.1%) |
| U.S. cash: | 3.1%–4.1% | (1.4%) |
| U.S. inflation: | 1.9%–2.9% | (2.4%) |
Notes: These probabilistic return assumptions depend on current market conditions and, as such, may change over time.
Source: Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.
IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from the VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modeled asset class. Simulations are as of November 8, 2024. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time. For more information, see the Notes section at the end of this article.
Region-by-region outlook
United States
United States
The U.S. economy has achieved a favorable balance of strong GDP growth, low unemployment, and cooling inflation. We attribute this confluence to recent supply dynamics—labor force and productivity growth—that have shaped the economic landscape over the past two years.
We expect:
- Another cut to the Fed’s target for short-term rates on December 18, 2024, putting its policy rate at 4.25%–4.50% for year-end. We anticipate the Fed will reduce its rate target further in 2025 to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. Cuts beyond that would prove difficult, as any weakening in growth would have to be weighed against a potential inflation revival.
- Full-year 2024 GDP growth of around 2.30%, with growth remaining above 2.00% in 2025.
- Inflation (core PCE) rising to 2.90% by year-end because of challenging comparisons with year-earlier data but falling to 2.50% by the end of 2025.
- The unemployment rate increasing marginally in 2025 to around the mid-4.00% range.
Europe
Euro area
The euro area economy has struggled amid a deep downturn in manufacturing and restrictive monetary and fiscal policies weighing on services demand. In 2025, we expect growth to remain below trend and the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates below neutral.
We expect:
- The ECB to cut its policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2025, although an intensification of trade tensions and a significant slowdown in global growth would each likely result in a more dovish monetary policy stance.
- GDP growth of around 0.50% in 2025, with a potential slowdown in global trade representing a key risk. Manufacturing faces headwinds from the lingering effects of the energy crisis and from weakening external demand. Restrictive fiscal and monetary policies are slowing the services sector.
- Headline and core inflation to end 2025 below 2.00%.
- The unemployment rate to rise to the high-6.00% range through 2025 given the pronounced slowdown in Germany and broader growth pressures.
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The U.K. economy recovered in 2024, but growth has been uninspiring, and productivity has been weak. We expect growth to accelerate above trend, driven by fiscal stimulus, in 2025.
We expect:
- Much of the spending in the autumn budget announced in October 2024 to be realized in 2025 and 2026, setting the stage for GDP growth of around 1.40% in 2025.
- Subdued progress on inflation, with core inflation falling to a 2.40% pace by the end of 2025. Services inflation remains elevated and is more stubborn, and fiscal easing would be expected to support demand.
- The Bank of England to leave its policy rate at 4.75% in December, followed by quarterly cuts next year that reduce it to 3.75% by year-end 2025.
- The unemployment rate to be 4.00%–4.50% at the end of 2024 and to finish 2025 toward the upper end of the same range.
China
China
China’s economy has regained some ground, buoyed by improved domestic demand on the strength of recent fiscal stimulus. The outlook for 2025 will hinge on the degree of policy support and potential U.S. tariff increases.
We expect:
- Full-year GDP growth to decelerate in 2025 to around 4.50%, which would be below the government’s 5.00% target of recent years. Growth momentum should improve in the coming months, but structural and external headwinds will persist, including a prolonged housing downturn, deepening supply-demand imbalances, and global trade developments.
- The People’s Bank of China to allow for some currency depreciation in 2025.
- Core inflation of around 1.50% in 2025, with only a modest inflationary thrust from currency depreciation in the face of higher tariffs.
- The unemployment rate to remain around 5.00% in 2025.
Emerging markets
Emerging markets
In many emerging markets, proactive policymaking has led to significant progress in reducing inflation. Indeed, most central banks in these markets felt comfortable enough to start easing policy from restrictive levels ahead of their developed markets counterparts. In 2025, we expect the easing cycle across emerging markets to both continue and broaden, with rates remaining in restrictive territory.
The central bank in Brazil raised its policy Selic rate again in November to 11.25%, accelerating the pace of its rate increases amid renewed inflationary pressures. Year-over-year headline inflation jumped to 4.76% in October, above the upper end of a 1.50-percentage-point tolerance band around the bank’s 3.00% inflation target.
The economy in Mexico surged in the third quarter, but restrictive interest rates and U.S.-related policy uncertainty make us bearish on Mexico, where we expect growth in a range of 1.25%–1.75% in 2025. The pace of core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell for the 21st straight month, to 3.80% year over year. We expect core inflation to fall to 3.25%–3.50% in 2025, above the midpoint of the 2.00%–4.00% target range set by the Bank of Mexico.
Vanguard perspectives series
For more expert insights, check out:
- Portfolio perspectives: Address evolving issues that may affect your clients’ portfolios with monthly updates from our Portfolio Solutions team.
- Active Fixed Income Perspectives: View our quarterly, in-depth commentary for a sector-by-sector analysis and a summary of how those views affect the Vanguard active bond funds.
Notes:
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
Investments in stocks and bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.
IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. VCMM results will vary with each use and over time.
The VCMM projections are based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Future returns may behave differently from the historical patterns captured in the VCMM. More important, the VCMM may be underestimating extreme negative scenarios unobserved in the historical period on which the model estimation is based.
The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® is a proprietary financial simulation tool developed and maintained by Vanguard’s primary investment research and advice teams. The model forecasts distributions of future returns for a wide array of broad asset classes. Those asset classes include U.S. and international equity markets, several maturities of the U.S. Treasury and corporate fixed income markets, international fixed income markets, U.S. money markets, commodities, and certain alternative investment strategies. The theoretical and empirical foundation for the Vanguard Capital Markets Model is that the returns of various asset classes reflect the compensation investors require for bearing different types of systematic risk (beta). At the core of the model are estimates of the dynamic statistical relationship between risk factors and asset returns, obtained from statistical analysis based on available monthly financial and economic data from as early as 1960. Using a system of estimated equations, the model then applies a Monte Carlo simulation method to project the estimated interrelationships among risk factors and asset classes as well as uncertainty and randomness over time. The model generates a large set of simulated outcomes for each asset class over several time horizons. Forecasts are obtained by computing measures of central tendency in these simulations. Results produced by the tool will vary with each use and over time.