Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q1 2024: Yield Mountain
Vanguard Perspective
|January 31, 2024
Vanguard Perspective
|January 31, 2024
Vanguard Active Fixed Income perspectives is our quarterly in-depth commentary. It offers a sector-by-sector analysis and a summary of how those views affect the Vanguard active bond funds.
Performance: In mid-October, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note crossed 5%. Then, slower inflation and a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve fueled an all-asset rally to end the year. The 10-year fell quickly below 4% and credit spreads squeezed tighter. Market pricing reflects a soft landing for the economy.
Looking ahead: Our positive view on the value of fixed income still holds. We expect interest rates to ultimately settle above the unusually low levels experienced after the 2008 global financial crisis. Investors can capture durable, resilient yields, and if rates decline, additional price appreciation.
Approach: Credit spreads are narrow, but overall yields remain attractive. We still hold an up-in-quality bias. Corporate credit and high-yield spreads should widen later this year as the economy weakens, but not to extremes. We await a better entry point to add lower-quality risk. Municipal bonds exhibit strong fundamentals and attractive tax-adjusted yields, with the most value out on the curve and down in credit rating.
The descent from Yield Mountain
Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is famous in finance for being the site of the Federal Reserve’s annual August symposium, but it is also home of one of the top ski resorts in the world. The skiing area on Après Vous and Rendezvous mountains features a 4,139-foot vertical drop, and half the runs are recommended for experts only.
Bond investors who rode a figurative gondola to what was likely the top of “Yield Mountain” in October experienced the thrill of the sudden descent in the following two months. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which began 2023 at 3.84%, fell from 5% in mid-October to back under 4% by mid-December.
What’s next? In 2024, we expect:
Fixed income investors should feel comfortable about the path ahead. We believe the range of likely potential outcomes for total returns has narrowed and leans more positive. Like on Rendezvous Mountain in Jackson Hole, the initial yield drop may prove to be the largest, but investors should enjoy the run ahead.
What could go wrong? There remains plenty to be concerned about:
Rates and inflation
What happened: Growth decelerated from its third-quarter peak, but there is little evidence yet of a near-term recession.
What’s next: The recent easing of financial conditions has increased the odds of a soft landing. However, we see risks to this consensus view. We think it is unlikely that rates will move significantly higher, but rate cuts may come later than the market expects if growth stays above trend and inflation is sticky.
How we see it: We hold a preference for exposure in the belly of the yield curve, with carry very negative at the front end and the potential for steepening at the far end.
What about outside the U.S.? We do expect growth and inflation to soften globally, with central banks preparing for rate cuts. Emerging markets countries should see the most activity.
Source: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2023.
Mortgage-backed securities
What happened: Government-backed mortgage bonds outperformed Treasuries of similar duration last year. Spreads for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ended 2023 near where they started, but higher yields propelled calendar-year returns above 5%.
What’s next: This year, more certainty around the direction of rates should translate into lower levels of volatility, a positive for MBS. Housing fundamentals have held up well as rates have risen and default rates remain low. However, home-buying activity has fallen dramatically as mortgage rates have risen to multidecade highs. Supply of new MBS bonds this year should again be modest.
How we see it: The MBS market should remain strong in 2024 for the following reasons:
Credit
What happened: The Fed’s unexpectedly dovish tone in December added fuel to the rally in risk assets that was already underway by the middle of the fourth quarter. With growth still above trend, credit sector valuations today are fully priced for a soft landing.
The big picture: Yields across credit sectors began 2024 lower than their October 2023 peaks but were still well above their 10-year averages. We see a strong case for credit to outperform government bonds this year, primarily due to higher yields.
Sources: Bloomberg indexes and J.P Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, as of December 31, 2023.
Investment-grade corporates
What happened: High-quality corporate spreads averaged 125 basis points (bps) last year and held near that level for the last several months before falling below 100 bps during December’s all-asset rally.
What’s next: Corporate fundamentals look strong even as interest expenses rise and margins narrow. While we don’t anticipate the pace of upgrades to continue, last year’s action shows that investment-grade companies are adjusting to the new economic environment.
How we see it: We still like the defensive characteristics of higher-quality credit at this point in the cycle.
Structured products
What happened: Asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) lagged credit sectors in the fourth quarter.
What’s next: ABS valuations, relative to 1- to 5-year investment-grade corporate bonds, have become attractive, particularly for lower-duration portfolios. CMBS should remain cheap due to concerns over property valuations and loan extension activity.
How we see it: U.S. consumers are financially healthy, based on the average ratio of nonmortgage liabilities like revolving credit, auto loans, and student loans to overall personal consumption. That bodes well for ABS, though we do see a more pronounced weakening among lower-credit-quality consumers. Higher-rated securities backed by quality collateral are a better bet.
High-yield corporates
What happened: Below-investment-grade bonds outperformed all other major bond market segments in 2023; the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index returned 13.45% for the year. Falling Treasury yields and a narrowing of spreads toward year-end provided the biggest boost. The 8.43% return over November and December was among the best two-month periods of performance for high yield ever.
What’s next: Company fundamentals remain stable and the refinancing risks for the sector are low over the next year. In our view, lower-quality CCC rated companies require higher economic growth than we expect, and their bonds are vulnerable. But BB and B rated segments should fare well. This year we expect supply to pick up, rating upgrades to slow, and defaults to rise but not by much.
How we see it: Yield levels are still compelling, but with spreads now in the low 3% range, we’re less excited about the value offered by owning generic high yield risk. However, dispersion across the sector is wide: 74% of bonds are trading at more than 100 basis points above or below average index yields. That provides a good environment for security selection.
The new high yield: More quality, less risk
Michael Milken1 became the face of the high-yield (a.k.a. junk) bond market in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Milken, then a star at investment bank Drexel Burnham Lambert, used high-yield bonds to finance risky mergers and acquisitions and leveraged buyouts.
Once a niche asset class more suited for risk-takers, high yield has since matured, particularly in the past decade. This extraordinary transformation is due, in part, to riskier elements of high yield having migrated to leveraged loans and private credit. This is evident in the average ratings profile of high yield today, which has moved closer to investment-grade and away from the ratings categories that typically experience higher default rates. The sector has also shown improved diversification.
The below-investment-grade market now looks like this:
Note: Each circle's diameter represents each circle's total market size.
Sources: Vanguard Calculations, J.P. Morgan First Quarter 2023 Leveraged Loan Credit Fundemental Report, as of December 31, 2022.
Source: Vanguard Calculations based on data from J.P. Morgan, as of September 30, 2023.
There are key differences between high yield, leveraged loans, and private credit.
High-yield bonds are issued by corporations with sub-investment-grade credit ratings. These bonds tend to yield more than investment-grade corporates, given the additional risks, which include higher debt and probability of default. High-yield issuers include companies seeking funding for capital expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and leveraged buyouts. High yield also includes the debt of formerly investment-grade companies that has been downgraded.
Leveraged loans share many similarities with high yield, and historically many corporations chose to issue in both markets. Leveraged loans typically have first or second liens on a company’s assets. Loans are floating-rate instruments with fixed credit spreads and prepayable at par at any time.
Private credit encompasses a range of nonbank lending, which includes direct lending to companies. Issuance historically has come from smaller, private companies and the lender base is more consolidated. Similar to leveraged loans, private credit loans are senior in a company’s capital structure and feature floating rates.
When high yield has swooned historically, it has typically been driven by concentration in one or a few industries. For example, during the dot-com bubble, telecom and media dominated the sector. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, high percentages of high-yield bonds were linked to leveraged buyouts. And prior to the 2015 commodity sell-off, issuance by energy exploration and fracking companies was high.
These types of sector concentration in lending, which have often preceded notable default episodes, are absent in today’s high-yield market. Furthermore, concentration among issuers and sectors has steadily declined over the past two decades.
High yield now appears higher quality than at any time in its history. Looking forward, we believe it will look more like a quality asset with these characteristics:
Emerging markets
What happened: Both emerging markets (EM) credit and local currency-denominated bonds generated double-digit returns in 2023. Economic resilience supported the performance of lower-rated issuers, and a decline in interest rates boosted EM broadly. Flows turned positive near year-end after an extended period of outflows.
What’s next: A wave of issuance in January forced spreads wider in countries with high credit ratings. Distressed countries are being priced for their higher risks. Even with elevated borrowing costs and weaker growth, we see EM benefiting from a positive risk appetite and falling global yields.
How we see it: We favor local currency fixed income positions that could benefit from rate cuts in countries with restrictive policy levels and improved inflation. With the Fed on pause, EM policymakers should have more room to lower their policy rates. Patience and flexibility will be important in the quarters ahead. More dispersion across the market should unlock more opportunities for country and credit selection.
Source: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2023.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
Implications for Vanguard funds
Rates
Credit
Municipal bonds
What happened: Municipal bonds rallied alongside the taxable fixed income sectors, with longer maturities enjoying higher total returns. Despite that, municipal yields are still at some of their highest levels over the past decade, and tax-equivalent yields demonstrate the value that municipals offer among highly rated bonds.
Alongside the fixed income rally, higher-rated segments of the municipal market richened, as shown by the yield ratios of AAA municipals to U.S. Treasuries against their long-term averages. The front end of the curve looks particularly expensive, while ratios in the long end appear more attractive yet still rich by historical standards. This appears to be driven by technicals, with supply slowing during the winter holiday season (as is typical), but there is still meaningful demand for this segment of the market, likely from direct bond purchases.
Technical factors have had the opposite effect lower on the rating spectrum, pushing spreads on A and BBB rated issues wider than broadly strong fundamentals justify. Such enticing valuations are a result of fund outflows (largely for tax-loss harvesting) over the past two years.
Sources: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2023.
Sources: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2023.
Source: Bloomberg and Investment Company Institute, as of December 31, 2023.
What’s next: The fundamental picture remains strong, with healthy balance sheets across most municipalities. Many issuers are sitting on adequate reserves and have increased their rainy day funds over the past several years. Further, we do not expect higher investment-grade default rates compared with historical averages, even in a recession scenario. Thus, we expect A and BBB rated credits to perform well into the foreseeable future.
Given an inverted yield curve, many municipal investors are holding cash instead of longer-dated bonds. However, the period from May 1981 to September 1992 serves as a relevant long-term test case for longer-duration exposures generating total returns greatly exceeding those of cash-like positions. While the cumulative returns shown below do not incorporate federal tax exemption for coupon income, doing so at the final date calculates a tax-equivalent total return of 390%, more than double that of T-bills. As investors become more attuned to these trends as the curve steepens, positive flows should resume within municipal funds. We expect this meaningful technical factor to drive spreads tighter.
Source: Bank of America, and Bloomberg
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
How we see it: Within our funds, we have constructed barbelled maturity positions, which aim to capitalize on more attractive valuations out on the curve while keeping tight to our duration targets. In addition, barbelling avoids the lower yields offered at the bottom of the U-shaped AAA muni curve.
Source: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2023.
Also important from a rates perspective: The curve has moved lower, leading to a meaningful shift in convexity profiles for many bonds, depending on their coupon levels and maturity dates. With yields as they currently are, many bonds with 4% coupons are particularly prone to further convexity risks (both duration extensions and compressions) if yields continue to oscillate around current levels.
From a credit beta perspective, we prefer to be overweight due to wider spreads and generally strong balance sheets across the municipal landscape. Sectors that have been challenged by pandemic pressures, like health care, are recovering, and we believe they have turned the corner—labor costs are abating and margins are improving. We favor hospitals over retirement communities, the latter of which likely still face considerable margin challenges.
Elsewhere, we see value in transportation and airports, both of which are pandemic recovery stories. As a recession remains a strong possibility, we have paired our credit beta with a duration overweight, which we expect to serve as a hedge if spreads widen.
Holding more credit and duration offers additional strategic benefits with a potential fund inflow cycle on the horizon. When this occurs, these exposures should add considerable value for our investors if a broad rally follows. While the timing of this trend is uncertain, historically, it has occurred quickly enough that proactive positioning is likely necessary to reap the gains.
Implications for Vanguard funds
Vanguard active bond funds and ETFs
Admiral™ Shares or ETF ticker symbol |
Expense ratio1 |
|
---|---|---|
TREASURY/AGENCY |
||
GNMA† |
VFIJX |
0.11% |
Inflation-Protected Securities |
VAIPX |
0.10 |
Intermediate-Term Treasury |
VFIUX |
0.10 |
Long-Term Treasury |
VUSUX |
0.10 |
Short-Term Federal |
VSGDX |
0.10 |
Short-Term Treasury |
VFIRX |
0.10 |
INVESTMENT-GRADE CORPORATE |
||
Core Bond |
VCOBX |
0.10% |
Core Bond ETF |
VCRB |
0.10 |
Core-Plus Bond |
VCPAX |
0.20 |
Core-Plus Bond ETF |
VPLS |
0.20 |
Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade |
VFIDX |
0.10 |
Long-Term Investment-Grade† |
VWETX |
0.12 |
Multi-Sector Income Bond |
VMSAX |
0.30 |
Short-Term Investment-Grade |
VFSUX |
0.10 |
Ultra-Short-Term Bond |
VUSFX |
0.10 |
Ultra-Short Bond ETF |
VUSB |
0.10 |
BELOW-INVESTMENT-GRADE |
||
High-Yield Corporate† |
VWEAX |
0.13% |
GLOBAL/INTERNATIONAL |
||
Emerging Markets Bond |
VEGBX |
0.40% |
Global Credit Bond |
VGCAX |
0.25 |
Vanguard active municipal bond funds |
||
NATIONAL MUNICIPAL |
||
Ultra-Short-Term Tax-Exempt |
VWSUX |
0.09% |
Limited-Term Tax-Exempt |
VMLUX |
0.09 |
Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt |
VWIUX |
0.09 |
Long-Term Tax-Exempt |
VWLUX |
0.09 |
High-Yield Tax-Exempt |
VWALX |
0.09 |
STATE MUNICIPAL |
||
California Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt |
VCADX |
0.09% |
California Long-Term Tax-Exempt |
VCLAX |
0.09 |
Massachusetts Tax-Exempt± |
VMATX |
0.13 |
New Jersey Long-Term Tax-Exempt |
VNJUX |
0.09 |
New York Long-Term Tax-Exempt |
VNYUX |
0.09 |
Ohio Long-Term Tax-Exempt± |
VOHIX |
0.13 |
Pennsylvania Long-Term Tax-Exempt |
VPALX |
0.09 |
* As reported in each fund’s prospectus. A fund’s current expense ratio may be higher or lower than the figure shown.
† Investment advisor: Wellington Management Company LLP.
± Investor Shares available only. There is no minimum investment required for advised clients.
** Includes funds advised by Wellington Management company LLP.
Note: Data as of December 31, 2023.
1 After the junk bond market he helped build collapsed, Milken pleaded guilty to securities fraud in 1990. He was issued a presidential pardon in 2020.
Active fixed income team
Global Head of Fixed Income Group<br>At Vanguard since 2019<br>In industry since 1992
Sara Devereux is a principal and global head of Fixed Income Group. Ms. Devereux has oversight responsibility for investment activities within the rates-related sectors of the taxable fixed income market including foreign exchange. Prior to joining the firm, Ms. Devereux was a partner at Goldman Sachs, where she spent over 20 years in mortgage-backed securities and structured product trading and sales. Earlier in her career, she worked at HSBC in risk management advisory and in interest rate derivatives structuring. Ms. Devereux started her career as an actuary at AXA Equitable Life Insurance. Ms. Devereux earned a B.S. in mathematics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Global Head of Credit <br>At Vanguard since 1990<br>In industry since 1990
Christopher Alwine is global head of Credit and Rates, where he oversees portfolio management and trading teams in the United States, Europe, and Asia-Pacific for active corporate bond, structured product, and emerging markets bond portfolios. He joined Vanguard in 1990 and has more than 20 years of investment experience.
Mr. Alwine was previously head of Vanguard's Municipal Group. There, he led a team of 30 investment professionals who managed over $90 billion in client assets across 12 municipal bond funds. He has served in multiple roles throughout his career in the Fixed Income Group. His experience includes trading, portfolio management, and credit research. Mr. Alwine's portfolio management experience spans both taxable and municipal markets, as well as active and index funds. He is also a member of the investment committee at Vanguard that is responsible for developing macro strategies for the funds.
Mr. Alwine earned a bachelor's degree in business administration from Temple University and an M.S. in finance from Drexel University. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® certification.
Global Head of Rates<br>At Vanguard since 2022<br>In industry since 2000
In his role as global head of Rates, Roger Hallam oversees the Global Rates, Treasury, Mortgages and Volatility, Currency, and Money Market Teams. He is a member of the Vanguard Senior Leadership Team and the Senior Investor Team. Prior to joining Vanguard, Mr. Hallam had been at J.P.Morgan Asset Management for more than 20 years as a senior global fixed income portfolio manager, and more recently as chief investment officer for Currencies. Mr. Hallam served as chair of the Currency Investment Policy Committee and was a member of the Global Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Investment Quarterly strategy team. He earned a B.S. from the University of Warwick and is a CFA charterholder.
Head of U.S. Municipals <br>At Vanguard since 2005<br>In industry since 2005
Paul Malloy is head of municipal investment at Vanguard. Previously, he was head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group, Europe. In this role, Mr. Malloy managed portfolios that invested in global fixed income assets. He also oversaw Vanguard's European Credit Research team. Mr. Malloy joined Vanguard in 2005 and the Fixed Income Group in 2007 and has held various portfolio management positions in Vanguard's offices in the United Kingdom and the United States. In past roles, he was responsible for managing Vanguard's U.S. fixed income ETFs as well as overseeing a range of fixed income index mutual funds.
Mr. Malloy earned an M.B.A. in finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a B.S. in economics and finance from Saint Francis University. He is a CFA® charterholder.
Senior Investment Specialist—Active
Dan Larkin joined Vanguard in 2016 as a senior product manager in Vanguard Portfolio Review Department, where he is responsible for supporting the active taxable fixed income product lineup, including: monitoring each fund’s positioning and performance in the markets, communicating about our products internally and externally, and driving and implementing product improvements.
Before joining Vanguard, Mr. Larkin was the director of fixed income for Nationwide Financial's Manager Research Team and was charged with the oversight and manager search efforts for all of Nationwide's sub-advised fixed income mutual fund strategies. Previously, he was a vice president at Barclays Capital responsible for the Mid-Atlantic business of Barclays portfolio management platform, POINT. There he worked with large institutional clients and was responsible for new business development, portfolio analysis, and relationship management. Prior to his time at Barclays, he was a mortgage-backed securities analyst at Standard & Poor's.
Mr. Larkin earned a B.B.A. in finance at James Madison University.
Senior Investment Specialist Active Fixed Income
Nate Earle is a senior active fixed income product manager at Vanguard, primarily focusing on the firm’s municipal bond franchise. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Earle came from State Street Global Advisors, where he served as a fixed income portfolio strategist. Prior to joining SSgA in 2017, he held similar roles in the fixed income product management organizations of both Standish and PIMCO. Mr. Earle earned a B.A. at Bates College and an M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Management. He is a CFA charterholder and a certified FRM.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing is subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
Bonds of companies based in emerging markets are subject to national and regional political and economic risks and to the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.
High-yield bonds generally have medium- and lower-range credit-quality ratings and are therefore subject to a higher level of credit risk than bonds with higher credit-quality ratings.
Bond funds are subject to interest rate risk, which is the chance bond prices overall will decline because of rising interest rates, and credit risk, which is the chance a bond issuer will fail to pay interest and principal in a timely manner or that negative perceptions of the issuer’s ability to make such payments will cause the price of that bond to decline.
U.S. government backing of Treasury or agency securities applies only to the underlying securities and does not prevent share-price fluctuations. Unlike stocks and bonds, U.S. Treasury bills are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest.
Investments in bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk.
Although the income from a municipal bond fund is exempt from federal tax, you may owe taxes on any capital gains realized through the fund’s trading or through your own redemption of shares. For some investors, a portion of the fund’s income may be subject to state and local taxes, as well as to the federal Alternative Minimum Tax.
Be aware that fluctuations in the financial markets and other factors may cause declines in the value of your account. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income.
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