Notes: Fair-value volatility range is calculated with an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression using Vanguard's leading economic indicator index (VLEI), financial conditions index (VFCI), and policy uncertainty index as independent variables. Volatility is measured as the standard deviation of daily returns of the S&P 500 index on a 30-day rolling time period, annualized. The forecasted range of volatility for 2020 is based on Vanguard's economic projections.
Sources: Vanguard calculations, based on data from Thomson Reuters Datastream and policyuncertainty.com
This year, you can get Vanguard's outlook in two ways.