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Interest rates

Interest rates

Understanding the direction and impact of changing interest rates

Global Macro Matters: Rising rates, flatter curve

Rising rates have not meant poor stock returns

Article

Chief Economist Joe Davis looks at how investors might fare as the Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates. While many believe rising rates are a harbinger of poor stock returns, history tells us otherwise.

Chief Economist Joe Davis looks at how investors might fare as the Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates.

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Is inflation heating up? Not really

Blog

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees inflation warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees inflation warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

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What to do about rising interest rates?

Audio  |  Transcript available

In this 13-minute podcast, Josh Hirt of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group discusses how rising interest rates can affect bond funds and ETFs, and how advisors can use a metric called duration to help match interest rate risk with their clients' time horizon.

In this 13-minute podcast, Josh Hirt of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group discusses how rising interest rates can affect bond funds and ETFs.

  Listen to audiocast

 | 

  Read transcript

New Fed chair, new challenge

Blog

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis sees market conditions warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis sees market conditions warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

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Our global chief economist sees potential inflation risk

Article

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis discusses volatility, inflation, stock valuations, and the Fed's next moves.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis discusses volatility, inflation, stock valuations, and the Fed’s next moves.

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2018 Economic and market outlook: Rising risks to the status quo

Article

What are the biggest threats to the global economy and markets? In its annual global economic and market outlook, Vanguard outlines its long-term expectations for growth, inflation, monetary policy, and more.

What's the most pronounced risk to the global economy and markets? Vanguard's economic experts share our 2018 economic and market outlook.

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Inside Fixed Income: Why rates will likely remain low

Article

The 2017 Inside Fixed Income conference offered advisors an opportunity to hear two of Vanguard's top fixed income experts, Anne Mathias and Chris Alwine, offer their thoughts on future inflation and the potential for interest rate increases.

The 2017 Inside Fixed Income conference offered advisors an opportunity to hear from two of Vanguard's top fixed income experts, Anne Mathias and Chris Alwine.

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An adversary in the fight for 2% inflation

Blog

Why is inflation so low? Joe Davis examines the growing deflationary effects of Moore’s Law.

Why is inflation so low? Joe Davis examines the growing deflationary effects of Moore’s Law.

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Phase Two of Fed policy normalization: Entering trickier waters

Blog

Federal Reserve policymakers will meet again next week. Our chief global economist previews what we might see from the Fed.

Federal Reserve policymakers will meet again next week. Our chief global economist previews what we might see from the Fed.

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Vanguard's look ahead at the next steps for Fed policy

Article

Rate hikes aren't the only aspect of Fed policy with significance for investors. Our experts discuss the sensitive task of the Fed lightening its balance sheet.

Rate hikes aren't the only aspect of Fed policy with significance for investors. Our experts discuss the sensitive task of the Fed lightening its balance sheet.

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A new policy season in the United States

Blog

Our global chief economist outlines possible policy changes from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill.

Our global chief economist outlines possible policy changes from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill.

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Using bonds in a low-interest-rate environment

Video  |  Transcript available

How might bonds be useful in the current low-interest-rate environment? It's all about their diversification value. Joe Davis, Vanguard's global chief economist and head of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, shares insights into bond investing in this 4-minute video.

Joe Davis, Vanguard's global chief economist, shares insights to using bonds in a low-interest-rate environment in this 4-minute video.

  Watch video

 | 

  Read transcript

We’re not going back to the ‘80s, but expect the Fed to raise rates

Blog

Expect a rate hike from the Fed. Have the growth rates of the ‘80s returned? Our global chief economist gives his perspective.

Expect a rate hike from the Fed. Have the growth rates of the ‘80s returned? Our global chief economist gives his perspective.

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U.S. interest rates: What to expect?

Video  |  Transcript available

In a new 5-minute video, Vanguard experts Gemma Wright-Casparius, Roger Aliaga-Díaz and Andrew Patterson analyze long-term interest rate expectations against a backdrop of global inflation expectations and potential Federal Reserve policy changes.

In a new 5-minute video, Vanguard experts discuss how inflation expectations and potential Fed policy changes could affect long-term interest rates.

  Watch video

 | 

  Read transcript

After Fed "lift-off" last year, another rate hike

Article

Advisors have been eagerly anticipating to hear whether the Fed will raise rates. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis reacts to The Federal Open Market Committee’s recent announcement on rates and discusses how it might affect portfolios in the long-term.

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis discusses The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on rates and how it might affect portfolios in the long-term.

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Thinking short and long on interest rates: What we expect from the Fed

Blog

Joe Davis discusses what we might see when the Fed wraps up its meeting on December 14.

Joe Davis discusses what we might see when the Fed wraps up its meeting on December 14.

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Yield surge: Remember bonds' real role

Article

Your clients may see bonds as a risky bet. But you can help them see the bigger picture by focusing on the strategic reason we invest in fixed income.

Your clients may see bonds as a risky bet. But you can help them see the bigger picture by focusing on the strategic reason we invest in fixed income.

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Fed officials more confident about raising rates

Video  |  Transcript available

Will the Fed raise rates this year? Andrew Patterson, a Vanguard senior investment strategist; and Alexis Gray, a Vanguard economist, discuss how likely it is that the Fed raises rates before the end of 2016 in a 3 1/2-minute video from our Economic Analysis video series.

Vanguard economic and investment experts discuss how likely it is that the Fed raises rates before the end of 2016 in a new 3 1/2-minute video.

  Watch video

 | 

  Read transcript

Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world

Whitepaper

In this research brief, Joe Davis examines whether global monetary policy has reached its limits of effectiveness. Can monetary actions continue to offset deflationary pressures? Is the Central Bank losing their strength and ability to bolster global growth?

In this research brief, Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis examines whether global monetary policy has reached its limits of effectiveness.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper