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Interest rates

Interest rates

Understanding the direction and impact of changing interest rates

Market and economic perspectives: May 2019

What the recent yield curve inversion does and doesn't tell us

Article

Vanguard Senior Economist Roger Aliaga-Díaz discusses the recent yield curve inversion and the likelihood of a recession.

Vanguard Senior Economist Roger Aliaga-Díaz discusses the recent yield curve inversion and the likelihood of a recession.

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What Fed projections may mean for longer-term stock returns

Article

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis is looking at the upcoming Fed meeting for clues about stock returns longer term.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis is looking at the upcoming Fed meeting for clues about stock returns longer term.

  Read article

What investors can expect as key decisions affecting markets await

Article

Vanguard's Roger Aliaga-Díaz discusses the potential short- and long-term market impacts of specific policy debates that could play out in the weeks ahead.

Learn Vanguard’s views on the impact looming policy decisions will have on investors.

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Webcast replay: 2019 Vanguard economic and market outlook

Article

What’s ahead in 2019 for the global economy and financial markets? Replay the live webcast with insights and analysis from Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis.

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis provides insights and analysis on our 2019 economic and market outlook.

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Fed policy update: A single rate hike likely in 2019

Article

Vanguard has adjusted its outlook for U.S. interest rate policy in 2019. Global Chief Economist Joe Davis explains why the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates only once this year.

Vanguard's global chief economist explains why the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates only once in 2019.

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2019 Global outlook: Down but not out

Whitepaper

Although several factors in the global economy will raise the risk of recession in 2019, a slowdown in growth--led by the United States and China--is the most likely outcome.

Factors in the global economy will raise the recession risk in 2019, but a growth slowdown is the likeliest outcome.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

Fed outlook for 2019: A pause is coming

Article

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees the Federal Reserve ending this rate-hiking cycle at around 3% next year. The markets are forecasting less tightening.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees the Federal Reserve ending this rate-hiking cycle at around 3% next year. The markets are forecasting less tightening.

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2019 Economic and market outlook: Down but not out

Whitepaper

Vanguard's outlook for global markets, the global economy, inflation, employment, and monetary policy.

Vanguard's expectations for the global markets in 2019 and beyond.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

Our CIO talks expectations, interest rates, and blockchain

Article

An interview with Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis about investment and economic conditions, investor expectations, and technology's effects on financial market efficiency and transparency.

An interview with Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis.

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The forces behind rising housing prices

Whitepaper

The housing market may soften from its current highs but won't alter our outlook for developed economies. Our analysis of the influence real estate will have on the global economy.

Our analysis on the likelihood an overvalued real estate market will trigger a recession.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

Market volatility: Perspective and resources

Article

While some clients can take volatility in stride, others can't. Market history and our coaching framework can help with potentially difficult conversations.

While some clients can take volatility in stride, others can't. Market history and our coaching framework can help with potentially difficult conversations.

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Global Macro Matters: Rising rates, flatter curve

Whitepaper

The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten. What could an inversion mean for the economy and investors?

The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten. What could an inversion mean for the economy and investors?

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

Rising rates have not meant poor stock returns

Article

Chief Economist Joe Davis looks at how investors might fare as the Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates. While many believe rising rates are a harbinger of poor stock returns, history tells us otherwise.

Chief Economist Joe Davis looks at how investors might fare as the Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates.

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Is inflation heating up? Not really

Blog

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees inflation warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees inflation warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Read blog  

Is inflation heating up? Not really

Article

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees inflation warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees inflation warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

  Read article

Is inflation heating up? Not really

Blog

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees inflation warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees inflation warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Read blog  

What to do about rising interest rates?

Audio  |  Transcript available

In this 13-minute podcast, Josh Hirt of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group discusses how rising interest rates can affect bond funds and ETFs, and how advisors can use a metric called duration to help match interest rate risk with their clients' time horizon.

In this 13-minute podcast, Josh Hirt of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group discusses how rising interest rates can affect bond funds and ETFs.

  Listen to audiocast

 | 

  Read transcript

New Fed chair, new challenge

Blog

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis sees market conditions warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis sees market conditions warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Read blog  

New Fed chair, new challenge

Blog

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis sees market conditions warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis sees market conditions warranting higher rates, but not too much higher.

Read blog