Our insights straight
to your inbox

Our insights straight to your inbox

Receive our latest Advisor's Digest
research
and commentary sent the
first business
morning every week.

A weekly digest of our latest research and commentary. Topics include the economy and markets, portfolio strategy, ETFs, and practice management.


Fund openings/closings, fund manager changes, dividend distributions, webinars, and other events you might want to know about.



Already registered? Log on to
manage your
email subscriptions.

STAY CONNECTED

LinkedIn  LinkedIn

  Mobile access
  RSS feed

Economy & markets

Bringing perspective to events that shape the economy and move markets

Economy & markets

Bringing perspective to events that shape the economy and move markets

2018 Economic and market outlook: Rising risks to the status quo

Vanguard's global outlook summary for 2019

Article

Although several factors in the global economy will raise the risk of recession in 2019, a slowdown in growth--led by the United States and China--is the most likely outcome.

Factors in the global economy will raise the recession risk in 2019, but a growth slowdown is the likeliest outcome.

  Read article

 | 

  Read PDF

The forces behind rising housing prices

Whitepaper

The housing market may soften from its current highs but won't alter our outlook for developed economies. Our analysis of the influence real estate will have on the global economy.

Our analysis on the likelihood an overvalued real estate market will trigger a recession.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

Market volatility: Perspective and resources

Article

While some clients can take volatility in stride, others can't. Market history and our coaching framework can help with potentially difficult conversations.

While some clients can take volatility in stride, others can't. Market history and our coaching framework can help with potentially difficult conversations.

  Read article

The fallout from the global financial crisis continues a decade on

Article

The global financial crisis is a decade behind us, but the fallout still continues.

The global financial crisis is a decade behind us, but the fallout still continues.

  Read article

Global Macro Matters: Rising rates, flatter curve

Whitepaper

The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten. What could an inversion mean for the economy and investors?

The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten. What could an inversion mean for the economy and investors?

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

Rising rates have not meant poor stock returns

Article

Chief Economist Joe Davis looks at how investors might fare as the Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates. While many believe rising rates are a harbinger of poor stock returns, history tells us otherwise.

Chief Economist Joe Davis looks at how investors might fare as the Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates.

  Read article

What's behind the latest surge in the dollar?

Article

Vanguard Senior Economist Roger A. Aliaga-Diaz puts the current U.S. dollar strength into the historical context of past dollar super-cycles.

Vanguard Senior Economist Roger Aliaga-Diaz puts the current U.S. dollar strength into the historical context of past dollar super-cycles.

  Read article

The fate of the euro

Whitepaper

All eyes are on the euro as investors wonder whether a partial or full breakup could be in its future. This research paper analyzes the history of the euro, the European Union, and other monetary unions to discuss ways to make the euro sustainable.

This research paper looks at the challenges facing the euro and examines its chances for survival.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

MYTH: Active management performs better in bear markets

Article

Why select an active manager? Advisors have many reasons, but not all of them hold up to scrutiny. Believing that active managers generally perform better in bear markets is a myth, not a reality. Take a look at the reality.

Not all reasons for selecting active managers hold up to scrutiny. Let's look at whether active managers generally perform better in certain bear markets.

  Read article

Still a long and bumpy road to travel on the way to a U.S.-China deal

Blog

Vanguard’s Qian Wang says the chance of a trade war between China and the U.S. has increased but there is still hope for a deal

Vanguard’s Qian Wang says the chance of a trade war between China and the U.S. has increased but there is still hope for a deal

Read blog  

After a bumpy start to 2018 for financial markets, what lies ahead?

Article

Vanguard Senior Economist Andrew Patterson gives an update on trade tensions, the labor market, interest rates, stock valuations, and expected returns.

Vanguard Senior Economist Andrew Patterson gives an update on trade tensions, rates, stock valuations, and expected returns.

  Read article

Are stocks dangerously overvalued?

Article

Not according to a new Vanguard yardstick. Our “fair-value” CAPE ratio suggests that valuations are indeed high but not in the “bubble” territory implied by the conventional CAPE.

Not according to a new Vanguard yardstick. Our “fair-value” CAPE ratio suggests that valuations are indeed high but not in “bubble” territory.

  Read article

Our outlook for Europe

Video  |  Transcript available

Vanguard Chief Economist, Europe, Peter Westaway offers his take on the impact of Brexit and what the future holds for the European market.

Vanguard Chief Economist, Europe, Peter Westaway discusses our expectations for Europe through 2019.

  Watch video

 | 

  Read transcript

Our expectations for developed and emerging markets

Video  |  Transcript available

What are our long-term expectations for developed and emerging markets? Peter Westaway--Vanguard's chief economist, Europe--and Qian Wang--Vanguard's chief economist, Asia-Pacific--offer their thoughts.

Vanguard economists discuss our expectations for returns in both developed and emerging markets.

  Watch video

 | 

  Read transcript

How should inflation factor into portfolio construction?

Video  |  Transcript available

Qian Wang, Ph.D., chief economist, Asia-Pacific, of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group explains how investors can help protect themselves from rising inflation.

Vanguard economists discuss countermeasures against the threat of rising inflation.

  Watch video

 | 

  Read transcript

What will the real return be over the next ten years?

Video  |  Transcript available

While inflation is expected to remain low, investors should expect the real rate of return on their investments to be in the range of 3% to 5%, compared with historical averages of 9% to 11%.

Vanguard economists discuss why investors should anticipate real returns that are lower than the historical averages over the next ten years.

  Watch video

 | 

  Read transcript

Is a global trade war now underway?

Article

The Trump administration’s May 31 ordering of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico, and Europe has sparked more concern over the risk of a trade war and implications for the global economy. How will these tariffs affect the U.S. economy? How concerned should investors be?

While the odds of a trade war have grown, we believe it is unlikely the U.S. will dramatically shift trade policy at the risk of disrupting domestic growth.

  Read article

The link between stocks and bonds: Will history be our guide?

Article

With market volatility becoming the norm, will we experience more simultaneous declines of stocks and bonds, and what popular hedging strategies are available to offset this occurrence?

With market volatility becoming the norm, will the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds still hold over time?

  Read article

Fingerprints and bear markets: No two are the same

Blog

If you choose to use active management, the best way to increase odds of success is to select low-cost managers.

If you choose to use active management, the best way to increase odds of success is to select low-cost managers.

Read blog  

 

Series

Global Macro Matters

In this series, Vanguard's world-class economic team takes a big-picture approach to explaining the trends that affect global markets and the economy.