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Economy & markets

Bringing perspective to events that shape the economy and move markets

Economy & markets

Bringing perspective to events that shape the economy and move markets

2019 Economic and market outlook: Down but not out

Podcast: Our 2019 economic and market outlook

Audio  |  Transcript available

In this podcast, Vanguard economist Josh Hirt discusses our expectations for the global economy and the markets in 2019 and beyond.

Vanguard economist Josh Hirt discusses our expectations for the global economy and the markets in 2019 and beyond.

  Listen to audiocast

 | 

  Read transcript

Our aspiration: Keep changing the way the world invests

Article

CEO Tim Buckley reflects on progress made to give investors a fair shake and what more Vanguard can do to deliver strong fund performance, trusted advice, and a world-class client experience.

CEO Tim Buckley shares progress made and efforts underway to deliver on Vanguard's promise to investors.

  Read article

Strategies for communicating your value in a down market

Video  |  Transcript available

Vanguard's Don Bennyhoff and Fran Kinniry say advisors can showcase their value to clients through behavioral coaching during down markets.

Vanguard's Don Bennyhoff and Fran Kinniry discuss how advisors can show their value to clients during down markets.

  Watch video

 | 

  Read transcript

Webcast replay: 2019 Vanguard economic and market outlook

Article

What’s ahead in 2019 for the global economy and financial markets? Replay the live webcast with insights and analysis from Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis.

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis provides insights and analysis on our 2019 economic and market outlook.

  Read article

Fed policy update: A single rate hike likely in 2019

Article

Vanguard has adjusted its outlook for U.S. interest rate policy in 2019. Global Chief Economist Joe Davis explains why the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates only once this year.

Vanguard's global chief economist explains why the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates only once in 2019.

  Read article

Our top 5 articles from the past year

Article

These five vanguard.com articles ranked as the most viewed by advisors during 2018.

What Vanguard articles did your peers find most valuable in 2018? Here are the top five.

  Read article

Our CIO comments on market volatility

Article

Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis offers perspective on the recent volatility in markets.

Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis offers perspective on the recent volatility in markets.

  Read article

2019 Global outlook: Down but not out

Whitepaper

Although several factors in the global economy will raise the risk of recession in 2019, a slowdown in growth--led by the United States and China--is the most likely outcome.

Factors in the global economy will raise the recession risk in 2019, but a growth slowdown is the likeliest outcome.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

The shutdown and its likely effect

Article

While we may see additional volatility, shutdowns haven’t always been bad for markets during the actual event. In the long run, they are less consequential.

While we may see additional volatility, shutdowns haven’t always been bad for markets during the actual event. In the long run, they are less consequential.

  Read article

Fed outlook for 2019: A pause is coming

Article

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees the Federal Reserve ending this rate-hiking cycle at around 3% next year. The markets are forecasting less tightening.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis sees the Federal Reserve ending this rate-hiking cycle at around 3% next year. The markets are forecasting less tightening.

  Read article

Enduring volatility: Two charts

Article

It's been a tough few weeks. These two charts can support you in your conversations with anxious clients.

It's been a tough few weeks. These two charts can support you in your conversations with anxious clients.

  Read article

Our CIO talks expectations, interest rates, and blockchain

Article

An interview with Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis about investment and economic conditions, investor expectations, and technology's effects on financial market efficiency and transparency.

An interview with Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis.

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The impact of economic surprises on asset returns

Whitepaper

Do economic surprises influence asset returns? A look at the effects of these surprises and the implications for investors.

Do economic surprises influence asset returns? A look at the effects of these surprises and the implications for investors.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

The forces behind rising housing prices

Whitepaper

The housing market may soften from its current highs but won't alter our outlook for developed economies. Our analysis of the influence real estate will have on the global economy.

Our analysis on the likelihood an overvalued real estate market will trigger a recession.

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

Market volatility: Perspective and resources

Article

While some clients can take volatility in stride, others can't. Market history and our coaching framework can help with potentially difficult conversations.

While some clients can take volatility in stride, others can't. Market history and our coaching framework can help with potentially difficult conversations.

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The fallout from the global financial crisis continues a decade on

Article

The global financial crisis is a decade behind us, but the fallout still continues.

The global financial crisis is a decade behind us, but the fallout still continues.

  Read article

Global Macro Matters: Rising rates, flatter curve

Whitepaper

The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten. What could an inversion mean for the economy and investors?

The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten. What could an inversion mean for the economy and investors?

  Read executive summary

 | 

  Read white paper

Rising rates have not meant poor stock returns

Article

Chief Economist Joe Davis looks at how investors might fare as the Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates. While many believe rising rates are a harbinger of poor stock returns, history tells us otherwise.

Chief Economist Joe Davis looks at how investors might fare as the Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates.

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What's behind the latest surge in the dollar?

Article

Vanguard Senior Economist Roger A. Aliaga-Diaz puts the current U.S. dollar strength into the historical context of past dollar super-cycles.

Vanguard Senior Economist Roger Aliaga-Diaz puts the current U.S. dollar strength into the historical context of past dollar super-cycles.

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Series

Global Macro Matters

In this series, Vanguard's world-class economic team takes a big-picture approach to explaining the trends that affect global markets and the economy.

Investment Commentary Podcast

A monthly audio series that addresses topical investment issues on the minds of your clients.