The strengths of superforecasting

March 14, 2017

 

Point forecasts in investing can be problematic—no one truly knows the future. Superforecasting takes this uncertainty into account. Rather than aiming to predict precisely what will happen, it helps paint a clearer picture of all the things that could happen.

Joe Davis, Vanguard's global chief economist and head of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, explains how superforecasting can help you avoid extreme risk positions, reduce recency bias, and use real-time information more effectively in this 3-minute video.

Note:

  • All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
 

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