Known unknowns: Uncertainty, volatility, and the odds of recession

June 3, 2019


Part of Vanguard's Global Macro Matters research series

Understanding the current—and potentially future—state of the global economy helps investors put market movements into context. Below are the latest insights from Vanguard Investment Strategy Group into Global Macro Matters.

Vanguard believes the United States will avoid a recession in 2019, but growth will decelerate more quickly toward 2% than previously anticipated. Tighter financial conditions and policy uncertainty are two risks that may hamper economic growth. Investors may experience ongoing spikes in volatility in the months ahead.


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