Rising rates, flatter curve: This time isn’t different, it just may take longer

September 21, 2018


Part of Vanguard's Global Macro Matters research series

Understanding the current—and potentially future—state of the global economy helps investors put market movements into context. To promote that understanding, researchers from Vanguard Investment Strategy Group examine the economic trends that affect the investing environment in this new series. Below are their latest insights into Global Macro Matters.

The U.S. yield curve has flattened substantially and will likely continue to do so as the Federal Reserve raises short-term interest rates while the long end remains range-bound. In this Global Macro Matters update, Vanguard researchers explain that the likelihood of a yield curve inversion—historically a strong leading indicator of an economic slowdown—increases substantially as we enter 2019. They also examine how these changes might affect the economy and investment portfolios.


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