Navigating the transition: China's future at a crossroads

April 5, 2017


At times considered the "world's factory," China is transforming and rebalancing to move away from an export-based economy to a more consumption-based one. This transition is not without challenges, and policy actions could determine whether a downward trend in China's economic growth since the global financial crisis leads to a hard landing, Japan-style stagnation, or something else entirely.

This white paper outlines the risks to China's medium- and long-term economic outlook and four potential scenarios for China's economic future.

Use this paper to:

  • Review the policy tools China might use to cushion its slowdown or protect itself from potential mistakes.
  • Understand the ways China's slowdown could affect other sectors of the global economy.
  • Examine four potential scenarios for China's economic future and the ways progress on structural reform and cushions from macro policy could help shape it.
Additional materials


All investing is subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.


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