2019 Economic and market outlook: Down but not out

December 6, 2018 (Updated June 25, 2019)


Note: Recent trade tensions and Federal Reserve developments have prompted us to adjust our monetary policy outlook. Our new baseline forecast is for two Fed rate cuts in 2019. For more details, please see: The Fed must play the hand it's been dealt.


With slowing growth, disparate rates of inflation, and continued policy normalization, periodic bouts of market volatility are likely to persist and perhaps accelerate. Our near-term outlook for global equity markets remains guarded, but our ten-year outlook for investment returns is beginning to improve.

In this report, Vanguard Investment Strategy Group details its expectations for the global economy, inflation, monetary policy, and the returns for stocks and bonds over the next decade.

Use this report to:

  • Get a detailed analysis of Vanguard's expectations for the global economy, broken down by geographic region.
  • Learn about Vanguard's outlook for inflation, monetary policy, and employment.
  • Discover the range in which we believe market returns will operate over the next decade.

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