2018 Economic and market outlook: Rising risks to the status quo

December 4, 2017 (Updated January 5, 2018)


For 2018 and beyond, our investment outlook is modest, at best. Elevated valuations, low volatility, and secularly low interest rates are unlikely to be allies for robust financial market returns over the next five years. Downside risks are more elevated in the equity market than the bond market.

In this report, Vanguard Investment Strategy Group outlines its expectations over the next decade for global economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, interest rates, and returns for stocks and bonds.

Our market outlook underscores the need for investors to remain disciplined and globally diversified, armed with reasonable return expectations and low-cost strategies.

Use this report to:

  • Learn about Vanguard's global economic and market outlook for the next decade.
  • Discover how our economic experts foresee what will happen with inflation, interest rates, and monetary policies both in the United States and abroad.
  • Gain an understanding of what Vanguard's economic and investment outlook means for balanced investment portfolios.

Additional materials


  • Links to third-party websites will open new browser windows. Except where noted, Vanguard accepts no responsibility for content on third-party websites.
  • All investing is subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.
  • There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income.


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